Chagos Deal on Hold: Could the Maldives and Sri Lanka Have a Greater Say in the Future of the Islands?
By Colombo wire Geopolitical Correspondent
The decision by the United Kingdom to pause the process of transferring sovereignty over the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius has reopened one of the most complicated territorial and geopolitical questions in the Indian Ocean.
What was once presented as a relatively straightforward transfer of sovereignty has now become entangled with questions involving the United States, the strategic importance of Diego Garcia, Mauritius, the Maldives and the wider security interests of the Indian Ocean region.
The delay could therefore create an opportunity for countries geographically connected to the Chagos region to demand a greater voice in determining its future.
Among them, the Maldives has already made its position clear. President Mohamed Muizzu's government has challenged Mauritius' claim and argued that the Maldives has legitimate interests in the waters and territory around the Chagos Archipelago.
The more controversial question is whether Sri Lanka should also seek a role.
A deal that has not reached its final destination
The UK and Mauritius signed a treaty in May 2025 under which Mauritius would exercise sovereignty over the Chagos Archipelago, while Britain would retain rights connected to the strategically important military base on Diego Garcia.
However, the agreement has encountered serious political and legal obstacles in Britain.
The British Government subsequently paused the process of putting the agreement into domestic law amid continuing discussions concerning the future of Diego Garcia and the position of the United States. The legislation did not complete its parliamentary journey during the relevant parliamentary session, leaving the proposed transfer in an uncertain position.
That pause matters because sovereignty has not simply become a settled issue between Britain and Mauritius.
It has created additional diplomatic space for other states to argue that their interests must be taken into account before any final settlement is implemented.
The Maldives has already entered the debate
The Maldives is in a much stronger position than it was several years ago to make its voice heard.
The Maldivian government has rejected the idea that the Chagos question should be treated exclusively as a matter between Britain and Mauritius. President Muizzu has asserted a Maldivian claim over the Chagos region and argued that the islands should belong to those with a legitimate historical and geographical entitlement.
The dispute is particularly significant because of the maritime boundary between the Maldives and Mauritius.
In 2023, the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea dealt with the maritime delimitation dispute involving the two countries. The issue demonstrated that Chagos is not simply a question of who owns a collection of remote islands; it is also about enormous maritime spaces, exclusive economic zones, fisheries and strategic access.
For the Maldives, therefore, the future of Chagos directly affects its maritime interests.
Where does Sri Lanka fit into this?
Sri Lanka's position is different.
There is currently no internationally recognised Sri Lankan sovereignty claim over the Chagos Archipelago comparable to Mauritius' historical claim or the Maldives' current counter-position.
Nevertheless, Sri Lanka's geographical location makes it impossible to ignore the strategic consequences of any settlement concerning Chagos.
Sri Lanka sits at the centre of major Indian Ocean shipping routes. The country has historically maintained close economic, security and diplomatic relationships with countries across the Indian Ocean.
The future of Diego Garcia is particularly important because the military facility is located in a region where developments can have consequences for the security calculations of India, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Mauritius and other Indian Ocean states.
That is why Colombo could reasonably argue for a greater regional consultation process.
But there is an important distinction between seeking a voice and claiming sovereignty.
Sri Lanka would need compelling historical, legal and diplomatic evidence before making an actual territorial claim to Chagos. Simply being geographically close to the archipelago would not, by itself, establish a legal title.
Could the Maldives and Sri Lanka share an interest?
A more realistic proposition would be for the Maldives and Sri Lanka to develop a common Indian Ocean position rather than immediately pursuing competing sovereignty claims.
The two countries have strong geographical connections and share interests in maritime security, fisheries, shipping and protection of their respective exclusive economic zones.
A future Chagos settlement could therefore include consultation with both countries.
Instead of allowing the issue to become an exclusive contest between Mauritius and Britain, there could be an argument for a wider Indian Ocean framework.
Such a framework could examine:
- maritime boundaries;
- fishing rights;
- environmental protection;
- freedom of navigation;
- security arrangements;
- the interests of Chagossians;
- the future of Diego Garcia; and
- the legitimate interests of neighbouring Indian Ocean states.
Such an approach would not necessarily undermine Mauritius' position. Instead, it could recognise that sovereignty over territory and rights over surrounding maritime areas are separate but interconnected questions.
The strategic problem of managing Chagos
There is also a practical question.
The Chagos Archipelago consists of numerous remote islands and atolls spread across a huge area of the Indian Ocean. Managing such a territory requires considerable administrative, financial, environmental and maritime capacity.
This is where the Maldives could face challenges if it were ever to acquire sovereignty.
The Maldives itself is an archipelagic country consisting of hundreds of islands, and managing distant territory thousands of kilometres from its main population centres would be extremely difficult.
For that reason, any proposal involving Maldivian sovereignty would require a substantial international security and administrative framework.
The same argument applies to Sri Lanka.
Rather than imagining one country simply taking possession of the islands, a future settlement could involve a cooperative regional arrangement.
Could Chagos become an Indian Ocean condominium?
One possible long-term concept could be a specially administered Indian Ocean territory involving regional participation.
Such a proposal would obviously require negotiations among the states concerned and could not simply be imposed by Britain, Mauritius, the Maldives or Sri Lanka.
But the idea deserves discussion because Diego Garcia has an exceptional strategic value.
The United States and Britain have invested heavily in the military infrastructure on Diego Garcia, while Mauritius has sought recognition of its sovereignty over the wider archipelago.
Any future settlement must therefore balance territorial sovereignty with international security requirements.
A regional arrangement could potentially allow Mauritius, the Maldives, Sri Lanka and other interested parties to participate in maritime management while preserving existing security arrangements.
Britain now has an opportunity to rethink the process
The current pause gives Britain an opportunity to step back and consider whether the original approach was sufficiently broad.
The UK-Mauritius agreement was designed primarily to resolve the sovereignty dispute between London and Port Louis while securing the continued operation of Diego Garcia.
But developments involving the Maldives demonstrate that the dispute has wider regional implications.
President Muizzu's government has gone so far as to reject the Mauritius settlement and pursue a stronger Maldivian position.
Consequently, simply restarting the old agreement without addressing Maldivian concerns could create another dispute rather than permanently resolving the Chagos question.
Sri Lanka should not remain silent
For Sri Lanka, the issue should not necessarily be about suddenly claiming territory.
Instead, Colombo could use the present uncertainty to demand that Sri Lankan maritime and security interests be considered.
Sri Lanka could call for a regional diplomatic consultation involving Britain, Mauritius, the Maldives and other relevant Indian Ocean states.
The government could also commission an independent historical and international-law study to determine whether Sri Lanka possesses any legitimate historical or maritime interests connected with Chagos.
If such interests exist, they should be documented and presented through appropriate diplomatic channels.
If no sovereignty claim can be established, Sri Lanka could nevertheless argue for participation in discussions concerning maritime security, environmental protection, fisheries and regional stability.
A chance to prevent a new Indian Ocean dispute
The greatest danger is that the Chagos issue becomes another source of rivalry in the Indian Ocean.
Mauritius wants sovereignty.
The Maldives is challenging Mauritius' position.
Britain wants to protect its strategic interests.
The United States wants to ensure the security of Diego Garcia.
And countries such as India and Sri Lanka cannot ignore the strategic consequences of developments in the region.
The pause in Britain's transfer process therefore provides an opportunity for diplomacy rather than confrontation.
Instead of asking only whether Chagos should belong to Mauritius or the Maldives, the international community could ask a broader question:
How can the future of the Chagos Archipelago be settled in a way that respects international law, the rights of the Chagossian people and the legitimate security and maritime interests of the Indian Ocean region?
For Sri Lanka, that is the opportunity.
Colombo may not currently possess a recognised legal claim to sovereignty over Chagos, but it has every reason to ensure that its national interests are not overlooked.
The Maldives, meanwhile, has already demonstrated that it is prepared to challenge the existing arrangement.
If Britain continues to pause the Mauritius agreement, the diplomatic space for a wider regional discussion will only grow.
The Chagos question may therefore no longer be simply a British-Mauritian dispute.
It could become an important test of whether the countries of the Indian Ocean are prepared to take a greater role in determining the future of their own strategic neighbourhood.