Winds of Change: Conspiracy, Catharsis or Cold Geopolitics?
In Sri Lanka’s ever-theatrical political arena, narratives often travel faster than verified fact. The latest to command attention is Winds of Change, the forthcoming book by Asanga Abeyagoonasekara, which recounts his extended and unusually candid interview with former president Gotabaya Rajapaksa.
According to Abeyagoonasekara, what began as a one-hour conversation inside Rajapaksa’s private residence expanded into a two-and-a-half-hour confessional. At its core lies a striking claim: that Rajapaksa was forced from power through a coordinated operation involving the CIA and India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW). China, notably, is portrayed as absent from the alleged intrigue.
The thesis is dramatic. But is it defensible?
The Singapore Episode: Surveillance or Suspicion?
One of the more vivid episodes described in the book concerns Rajapaksa’s medical visit to Singapore’s Mount Elizabeth Hospital. Rajapaksa reportedly felt he was being trailed by U.S. operatives, observing that a U.S. Embassy official from Colombo appeared in Singapore during his hospital stay.
This raises two analytical questions.
First, was there any verified U.S. surveillance operation targeting a sitting or recently deposed Sri Lankan president? No documentary evidence has emerged publicly to support such a claim.
Second, even if U.S. diplomatic staff were present in Singapore contemporaneously, does coincidence constitute causation? Diplomats travel routinely for official and unofficial reasons. Without corroboration from intelligence intercepts, declassified cables, or whistleblower testimony, such assertions remain in the realm of perception rather than proof.
Abeyagoonasekara reportedly suggests Sri Lankan intelligence “might have known” about U.S. activity. That ambiguity is telling. Intelligence agencies operate on gradients of information, but extraordinary allegations demand evidentiary thresholds far beyond conjecture.
Ambassadorial Intimacy and Strategic Divergence
The narrative takes on an almost Shakespearean dimension when discussing U.S. Ambassador Julie Chung. Abeyagoonasekara recounts that she maintained a cordial and even spiritually personal rapport with Rajapaksa—once offering a Christian prayer at his Mirihana residence.
Diplomatic relationships, however warm, do not preclude strategic divergence. It is entirely plausible for an ambassador to maintain open channels while Washington recalibrates policy objectives. That is the essence of diplomacy.
The more consequential question is whether such proximity could coexist with covert destabilization. Historically, intelligence operations and diplomatic engagement are compartmentalized but aligned within broader national objectives. Yet without material evidence—financial trails, communication logs, or declassified directives—the accusation remains speculative.
The Exit: Maldives, Thailand and the Resignation Letter
Rajapaksa’s departure route—Sri Lanka to Maldives, then onward to Thailand—remains one of the most scrutinized episodes of 2022. Abeyagoonasekara notes that India allegedly refused an initial request for assistance, forcing Rajapaksa to seek alternative passage.
Intriguingly, the resignation letter was reportedly collected in Bangkok not by Sri Lanka’s ambassador but by a representative of a foreign state. If accurate, that detail would merit serious constitutional and diplomatic inquiry. However, public record indicates that the formal resignation process complied with constitutional requirements transmitted to Colombo.
The absence of transparent documentation fuels suspicion, but suspicion alone does not establish a coordinated CIA-RAW regime-change operation.
The Inner Circle: Influence or Insubordination?
Abeyagoonasekara's book reportedly scrutinizes members of Rajapaksa’s inner circle, including former Foreign Secretary Jayanatha Colombage, Institute of National Security Studies- former Director General Rohan Gunaratna, and Pathfinder Foundation founder Milinda Moragoda.
The allegation is not merely policy disagreement but strategic betrayal—an assertion that certain advisers were aligned with Western or Indian interests and worked against Rajapaksa’s political survival.
Moragoda, in particular, is depicted as a long-game strategist positioning himself for a future presidential run in 2029, cultivating simultaneous goodwill in Washington, New Delhi, and Beijing. It is also noted that he holds U.S. citizenship, a fact that adds complexity to nationalist narratives but does not inherently imply disloyalty.
The more granular claim—that individuals linked to Pathfinder attempted to sideline Abeyagoonasekara by proposing his transfer to Germany as a consular officer—speaks to bureaucratic maneuvering rather than espionage. Governments are ecosystems of factional competition. Policy infighting is not synonymous with foreign subversion.
The Military Dimension: Loyalty and Fracture
The book reportedly affirms the loyalty of General Shavendra Silva, while casting doubt on the role of Defence Secretary Kamal Gunaratne during the crisis.
Here again, the analytical challenge lies in distinguishing institutional recalibration from betrayal. When a presidency collapses under economic and popular pressure, security chiefs often prioritize state continuity over personal allegiance. Such decisions may appear as betrayal to a leader, but to institutions, they may represent damage control.
The CIA-RAW Hypothesis: Strategic Plausibility
Could the United States and India have shared an interest in leadership change in Colombo? Geopolitically, Sri Lanka sits astride critical Indian Ocean sea lanes. Washington and New Delhi have both sought to counterbalance Chinese influence in the region.
However, plausibility is not proof.
Regime change operations—where historically substantiated—leave trails: financial conduits, proxy mobilizations, communications intercepts, or later declassifications. To date, no such corpus has been produced regarding Rajapaksa’s fall.
It is equally significant that Rajapaksa himself was a former U.S. citizen. The paradox of alleging a CIA operation against someone once within America’s own legal fold complicates the narrative. Intelligence services act on interests, not sentiment, but policy calculus is rarely so linear.
Domestic Causation vs. External Conspiracy
Any serious assessment must weigh internal factors:
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Severe economic mismanagement
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Sovereign debt crisis
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Fuel and medicine shortages
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Mass protests under the “Aragalaya” movement
Structural economic collapse provides a far more parsimonious explanation for political downfall than a covert intelligence conspiracy. External actors may exploit instability, but they rarely manufacture macroeconomic implosion ex nihilo.
A Book as Political Intervention
Winds of Change will soon be available in Sri Lanka, with a Sinhala translation expected. Its arrival is likely to reignite debate about 2022—not merely as economic crisis but as alleged geopolitical coup.
Books of this nature perform dual functions: they preserve personal testimony and they shape historical memory. Whether Abeyagoonasekara's account ultimately stands as documentation or as political literature will depend on corroboration.
For now, the work reads less like an intelligence dossier and more like a political memoir filtered through grievance and intrigue.
The Unanswered Question
If, as alleged, a sophisticated CIA-RAW joint operation was underway, the most consequential question remains: where is the evidence?
Intelligence history teaches that covert operations eventually surface through archives, leaks, or geopolitical shifts. Until such material appears, the CIA hypothesis rests on narrative assertion rather than forensic substantiation.
Sri Lanka’s tragedy in 2022 may well have involved external influence. But absent verifiable proof, the more convincing explanation remains internal systemic failure compounded by global economic headwinds.
Winds of Change may reshape public discourse. Whether it reshapes historical truth will depend on what comes after publication—not on what is claimed within its pages.*