From Protest to Power: Why Sri Lanka Chose the NPP on 21 September 2024 — and What It Now Expects from President Anura Kumara Dissanayake
Colombo Wire – Special Political Series
On 21 September 2024, Sri Lanka did something it had not done in its post-independence political history. A majority of voters—exhausted, indebted, disillusioned, and politically orphaned—placed their trust in a political formation that had spent decades on the margins of power. The victory of the National People’s Power (NPP) and the election of Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) as President was not a moment of ideological romance; it was an act of political survival.
This was not a vote for perfection. It was a vote against failure.
To understand why the NPP prevailed, one must first understand the condition of Sri Lanka on the eve of the election. The country was bankrupt in both economic and moral terms. Locked out of international capital markets, dependent on an IMF debt restructuring programme that dictated tax policy and fiscal discipline, and presided over by a political class that had lost all credibility, Sri Lanka in September 2024 was a broken state governed by broken habits.
The election therefore posed a single, brutal question to the electorate: Who can be trusted to clean up a system that has failed for 75 years?
For a majority of Sri Lankans, the answer—remarkably and decisively—was Anura Kumara Dissanayake.
In August 2024, an electoral survey conducted quietly by a diplomatic mission in Colombo reached a conclusion that, at the time, appeared implausible to much of Sri Lanka’s political class: National People’s Power (NPP) candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayake was on course to secure more than 50 per cent of the national vote. The findings were not publicly released, but they circulated discreetly among few political observers, Foreign Ministry of the particular country , and a handful of local analysts who understood their significance.
This author examined the survey data in detail and, weeks before polling day, wrote that Anura Kumara Dissanayake was no longer a protest candidate but the frontrunner in the presidential race. The analysis noted a decisive shift among undecided voters, particularly in urban centres and among first-time voters, alongside an erosion of support for establishment candidates across traditional party strongholds. What the survey captured was not merely voting intention, but a deeper collapse of confidence in the political status quo.
Crucially, the survey results became a motivation factor inside the NPP campaign itself. Until then, the party had campaigned as an outsider force, focused on message discipline and grassroots mobilisation rather than outright victory. Once internal polling and external diplomatic assessments converged, the NPP recalibrated its final-week strategy, intensifying its push against the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) candidate and targeting swing constituencies where voter fatigue with traditional parties was most pronounced.
In the closing weeks of the 2024 presidential campaign, the NPP’s tone subtly shifted—from moral critique to governing readiness. The confidence generated by credible survey data allowed the campaign to project inevitability without triumphalism. In retrospect, the August survey did not predict the outcome so much as reveal what Sri Lanka’s political establishment had failed to grasp: that the electorate had already moved on, and the election was merely the formal recognition of that shift.
The National People’s Power never publicly articulated its full political strategy for either the presidential or parliamentary elections, and that omission was deliberate. Unlike traditional parties that rely on manifesto spectacle and media saturation, the NPP treated strategy as an operational asset rather than a public relations exercise. Senior figures within the movement were acutely aware that premature disclosure would allow opponents to adapt, neutralise messaging, and deploy counter-narratives using far greater financial and media resources.
At the core of this approach was disciplined asymmetry. The NPP understood that it could not outspend or outbroadcast its rivals, so it invested instead in ground-level intelligence, voter sentiment mapping, and tightly controlled message consistency. Campaign decisions were decentralised in execution but centralised in narrative, allowing local organisers to respond to constituency-specific concerns while reinforcing a national theme of trust, anti-corruption, and systemic reform. Silence, in this context, was not absence—it was strategic concealment.
By refusing to turn its electoral playbook into a public document, the NPP preserved a critical advantage through both elections. Its opponents, accustomed to predictable campaign cycles and legacy voting blocs, underestimated the depth and adaptability of the NPP’s organisational machinery. What appeared externally as improvisation was, in reality, a carefully guarded model of political mobilisation—one that the NPP continues to protect, precisely because it proved effective
A Bankrupt State and a Collapsed Political Order
By September 2024, the Sri Lankan state could not borrow, could not spend freely, and could not lie convincingly anymore. Inflation had eroded wages. Indirect taxes punished the poor and the middle class alike. Essential goods were scarce or unaffordable. Thousands of Sri Lankans—professionals, skilled workers, and young graduates—were leaving the country in quiet despair.
More damaging than the economic collapse was the collapse of governance. Corruption had ceased to be scandalous; it had become routine. Nepotism was no longer hidden. Public money was spent “without tomorrow,” as voters frequently put it, while ordinary citizens were lectured on austerity and sacrifice.
The IMF effectively took custody of the Finance Ministry. Tax laws were drafted not in Colombo but through negotiations driven by debt sustainability models. Whether necessary or not, this arrangement symbolised the loss of sovereignty in the eyes of the public.
Against this backdrop, the traditional political establishment—represented by figures such as Ranil Wickremesinghe and Mahinda Rajapaksa—offered continuity without credibility. Their warnings that the NPP lacked “experience” rang hollow. Experience, after all, had brought the country here.
Why Trust Became the Central Electoral Currency
The September 2024 election was not fought on grand manifestos. It was fought on a single intangible asset: trust.
Voters were no longer asking who could deliver prosperity overnight. They were asking who would not steal, who would not lie, and who would not treat the state as private property. AKD’s appeal lay not in charisma or populism, but in consistency. For decades, he had remained outside the revolving door of corruption. In a country where politics had become synonymous with enrichment, that distinction mattered.
The NPP’s message was simple but radical in context: bad governance is not a technical failure; it is a moral one. Economic reform without ethical reform, they argued, would only reproduce crisis.
This framing resonated deeply across social and ethnic lines.
Why Women Voted for the NPP
One of the most under-analysed dimensions of the NPP victory was the scale of women’s support. Women, particularly in urban and semi-urban areas, experienced the economic crisis most acutely. They managed shrinking household budgets, dealt with shortages, and absorbed the social consequences of unemployment and migration.
For many women voters, the NPP represented discipline, predictability, and a break from performative masculinity in politics. AKD’s style—measured, non-theatrical, and policy-oriented—contrasted sharply with decades of strongman posturing that had delivered neither security nor prosperity.
Importantly, women voters were not voting ideologically. They were voting pragmatically, seeking a state that functions, delivers services, and does not leak resources through corruption.
Why Muslims Rejected Fear Politics
Muslim voters, long treated as electoral swing blocs and scapegoats during times of crisis, also shifted decisively toward the NPP. This was significant. For years, mainstream parties had either exploited anti-Muslim sentiment or failed to confront it.
The NPP’s approach—explicitly rejecting communal politics and framing citizenship in civic rather than ethnic terms—offered something rare: political dignity without transactional bargaining. For Muslim communities battered by economic hardship and political suspicion, the NPP’s emphasis on equal treatment under the law mattered more than identity symbolism.
The North and East: The Quiet Collapse of Identity Politics
Perhaps the most consequential shift occurred in the North and East. For the first time, a substantial number of Tamil voters voted beyond traditional Tamil nationalist parties. This was not a rejection of Tamil grievances; it was a recognition that identity politics had failed to deliver material progress.
Young Tamils in particular viewed the NPP as a vehicle for systemic reform rather than symbolic representation. They were less interested in rhetoric and more concerned with jobs, education, and governance. The NPP’s national economic narrative—rather than its ethnic positioning—proved decisive.
Upcountry Tamils and the Politics of Daily Survival
Among plantation workers in tea and rubber estates, loyalty to traditional political intermediaries had long been transactional. But by 2024, even these structures had lost credibility. Wages stagnated, living conditions remained poor, and political brokers delivered diminishing returns.
The NPP’s appeal lay in its promise to reform labour structures and public services at a systemic level. Upcountry Tamil voters were not abandoning their identity; they were prioritising survival.
Youth, Professionals, and the Revolt Against Inheritance Politics
The NPP campaign was powered by youth energy unmatched by any other political force. This was not merely enthusiasm; it was generational anger. Young voters had grown up watching political dynasties fail upward while opportunities narrowed.
Professionals and middle-class voters, too, shifted toward the NPP—not because they expected immediate tax relief, but because they recognised that without governance reform, no economic policy would hold.
The Critics: Former Leftists and the Politics of Resentment
Since the election, a curious phenomenon has emerged. Sections of the old Left and nominal socialists—long marginalised—have become some of the loudest critics of the NPP government. Their criticisms often focus on pace, pragmatism, and compromise.
Some of this critique is legitimate. But much of it appears rooted in ego, lost relevance, and resentment at being bypassed by a movement that succeeded where they failed. The NPP’s challenge is to distinguish between principled dissent and performative opposition.
Experience, International Relations, and the Myth of Imminent Collapse
During the campaign, critics warned that the NPP government would collapse within months. They claimed AKD lacked international connections. These claims misunderstood both governance and geopolitics.
International credibility is not inherited; it is earned. What global partners seek is predictability, fiscal discipline, and political stability—not pedigree. Early engagements suggest that the NPP understands this reality.
Cleaning 75 Years of Institutional Decay
Perhaps the greatest challenge facing the NPP is civil service reform. The Sri Lankan bureaucracy is not merely inefficient; it is culturally resistant to accountability. Cleaning this system is not akin to post-cyclone debris removal. It is closer to decontamination.
The NPP’s task is to reform institutions without paralysing them—to enforce accountability while maintaining functionality. This will take time, and voters, for now, appear willing to grant it.
Indigenous Solutions and Post-Crisis Reconstruction
A key promise of the NPP is the development of indigenous solutions to Sri Lanka’s problems—not isolationism, but contextual policy-making rooted in local realities. This includes rebuilding post-Cyclone Dhitwa infrastructure in a way that prioritises resilience rather than spectacle.
The Test Ahead: From Trust to Results
The September 2024 vote was an act of trust. Maintaining that trust will require transparency, discipline, and humility. Sri Lankans do not expect miracles. They expect honesty, effort, and direction.
The NPP’s victory was not the end of a struggle; it was the beginning of a difficult, uncertain experiment in governance. Whether it succeeds will determine not just the fate of a government, but the future of democratic renewal in Sri Lanka.
This is the first in a Colombo Wire series examining how the NPP victory translates into real results—and whether President Anura Kumara Dissanayake can keep the promise that brought him to power.